Polling stations across Holborn and St Pancras opened early this morning, marking the start of a closely watched by‑election triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation from the House of Commons.

Fifteen candidates vie for a former leader’s seat

Electors will choose from a slate of fifteen hopefuls, ranging from the major parties to several independents. The Electoral Commission confirmed that voting will run until 10 p.m, with ballot boxes to be counted on Friday.

Turnout expectations are modest but higher than typical mid‑term by‑elections, according to a recent poll commissioned by The Guardian, which puts participation at around 42 %.

Burnham and Polanski emerge as front‑runners

Labour’s candidate, former mayoral adviser Emma Burnham, is banking on the party’s recent surge in urban constituencies. Burnham, 38, previously served as deputy chief of staff to the mayor of London and has positioned herself as a champion of affordable housing and public transport.

Facing her is Conservative contender Jacek Polanski, a 45‑year‑old business consultant who highlighted his experience in finance and promises to “bring fiscal prudence back to Westminster”. Polanski’s campaign material stresses tax cuts for small firms and a tougher stance on immigration.

Both candidates have drawn national attention. Labour’s national chair described the contest as “a litmus test for the new leadership”, while the Conservative Party’s spokesperson said the by‑election offers “an opportunity to demonstrate that the party’s message still resonates in London”.

Other parties and independents add colour

The Liberal Democrats fielded university lecturer Tom Richardson, who is campaigning on a platform of electoral reform and green investment. The Green Party’s candidate, Sofia Alvarez, is a community organiser focusing on climate‑justice initiatives.

Two independents – a former NHS manager and a local activist – also appear on the ballot, reflecting the constituency’s diverse socio‑economic makeup.

Why the contest matters

Holborn and St Pancras has been a Labour stronghold since 2015, and Sir Keir Starmer held the seat for three terms before stepping down to concentrate on his role as party leader. The by‑election therefore serves as a barometer for Labour’s appeal under its new leadership, especially after the party’s recent gains in the 2026 local elections.

For the Conservatives, a win would signal a resurgence in a constituency they lost in 2019, potentially reshaping their strategy ahead of the general election due by 2027.

Political analysts note that the result could influence internal party dynamics. A strong showing for Burnham may consolidate the current leadership’s agenda, while a Polanski victory could embolden calls for a shift in Conservative policy to recapture urban voters.

Next steps

Ballot boxes will be sealed at 10 p.m and transported to Westminster’s counting centre. Results are expected to be announced late Friday, with live coverage planned by major broadcasters.

The outcome will likely dominate political headlines over the weekend, shaping narratives ahead of the next general election campaign.