Polish authorities are investigating a 10-metre (33ft) wide crater in eastern Poland, which Prime Minister Donald Tusk said was "most likely" caused by a Russian missile. The explosion occurred near the village of Tarnawa Kolonia, approximately 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

The incident took place as Russia launched a fresh barrage of missile strikes against cities in western Ukraine, including Lviv, overnight. Poland’s Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed the preliminary assessment, identifying the object as "most probably" a Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile.

"That's the most probable hypothesis," Poland's Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said regarding the Kh-101 missile.

The crater’s significant depth and diameter have prompted a comprehensive investigation by Polish military and security services into how the object landed on NATO territory.

Investigation Focuses on Missile Origin

The Inspector of the Polish Air Force stated that during Russia's recent offensive against Ukraine, two missiles were identified as posing a "direct threat" to Polish airspace. While neither of these was confirmed to have caused the Tarnawa Kolonia crater, the timing and location strongly suggest a connection to the ongoing conflict.

Polish officials have not yet provided details on whether the missile was intercepted, malfunctioned, or strayed off course. The focus remains on forensic analysis of the site and any recovered fragments to confirm the weapon type and trajectory.

Heightened Tensions Near Ukrainian Border

This event marks a significant escalation of tensions along the Polish-Ukrainian border, which has been under increased scrutiny since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Poland, a key NATO member, shares a long border with Ukraine and has been a vital conduit for Western military and humanitarian aid.

Past incidents involving projectiles crossing into Polish territory have led to diplomatic friction and calls for reinforced air defence capabilities. The current investigation is expected to be closely watched by NATO allies, given the implications for regional security.

The Polish government has reiterated its commitment to national security and its resolve to protect its borders, although no immediate details on enhanced defence measures were announced following the incident.