Merz’s coalition faces a crisis as state polls turn up the heat

Chancellor Friedrich Merz watched the vote counts from his office in Berlin as people turned out on Sunday to decide the future of two of the country’s most politically volatile states. The elections, held in Schleswig‑Holstein and Saxony, could give the far‑right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) a foothold in the federal parliament and leave Merz’s coalition in a precarious position.

Initial results from both state ballot boxes show the AfD gaining a handful of seats, a sign that the party’s anti‑immigration platform continues to resonate in areas where economic disquiet remains high. The centre‑right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merz’s own party, slipped in both states, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a modest drop.

In Schleswig‑Holstein the AfD secured 10.2 % of the vote, up from 8.4 % in last year’s election. The CDU fell to 24.5 % from 27.1 %. The SPD’s share dipped to 22.9 % from 23.6 %. In Saxony the AfD rose to 12.7 %, a rise of 2 percentage points, while the CDU slipped to 24.0 % and the SPD to 21.8 %.

These figures are still preliminary; the final tallies will be released late on Monday, but the trend is clear: the coalition’s margin of victory is narrowing. If the AfD gains additional seats in the Bundestag, it could become the largest opposition party, a development that would strain the current governing alliance of CDU, SPD and the Greens.

Pressure mounts on Merz’s leadership

Merz has faced declining approval ratings since taking office in late 2025, with polls showing a 42 % approval figure against a 48 % disapproval rate. The chancellor’s policy agenda—tightening immigration controls, boosting defence spending and cutting taxes—has drawn criticism from both left‑wing parties and factions within his own coalition who fear the measures could deepen social divides.

Observers note that the two state elections are a litmus test for Merz’s ability to hold the coalition together. A poor showing by the CDU could trigger calls for a cabinet reshuffle or, in the worst case, a motion of no confidence. The Greens, already uneasy about the chancellor’s stance on climate policy, have warned that the coalition’s stability hinges on a stronger commitment to renewable energy targets.

Merz’s spokesperson said the government would "continue to pursue its agenda" and urged voters to focus on the nation’s broader challenges. He added that the coalition had been "tested before and proven resilient". The statement was issued before the final vote count, making its timing controversial.

What the results mean for Germany’s political landscape

Should the AfD secure a larger share of the Bundestag seats, it would become the third‑largest party behind the CDU/CSU and SPD. While it cannot form a government alone, the party could become kingmaker in a fragmented parliament, forcing the governing coalition to make concessions on key policy areas.

The far‑right’s gains could also embolden hard‑line stances on migration, potentially leading to stricter border controls and a re‑examination of Germany’s role in the European Union. A shift toward a more nationalist agenda would risk straining relations with EU partners and could affect Germany’s position as the EU’s economic engine.

Meanwhile, the far‑left, represented mainly by the Left party, remains a distant third in the state polls. Their influence is limited, but they could use the elections to push for higher social welfare spending and a more progressive tax system, thereby challenging the centrist narrative promoted by Merz’s coalition.

The political scene is set for a dramatic Monday when the final results are announced. Analysts predict that the outcome will determine whether Merz can maintain his coalition or whether Germany will see a shift towards a more polarized parliamentary order.

Merz’s next move will be crucial: he will need to balance appeasing coalition partners, addressing public concern over immigration and security, and maintaining Germany’s economic stability amid a tightening global market. The nation watches, and the stakes have never been higher.